Lantmännen Forecasts 20% Drop in Sweden’s Grain Harvest

Lantmännen announced that following earlier descriptions of a challenging harvest situation, this year’s grain harvest is expected to amount to 5 million tons. This is reportedly due to the winter damage that occurred in 2026. The group announced that this year’s forecast is 20% lower than the Swedish Board of Agriculture’s final harvest outcome of 6.4 million tons for 2025, which is also below the ten-year average of around 5.5 million tons.

The assessment is based on multiple data sources and indicates significant variations between regions and crops.

Per Germundsson, the Director of Grain Business at Lantmännen, stated: “This year’s forecast shows a clearly weaker harvest situation. The winter has had a severe impact, particularly on winter wheat, while farmers also face high costs and low grain prices. For many farmers, this amounts to a triple challenge: lower volumes, pressured grain prices and high production costs,”.

Winter crops entered the season with strong potential, but conditions deteriorated sharply. Excess moisture and adverse weather damaged large growing areas, particularly in western Sweden and the Mälardalen region, while Skåne and Gotland faced early summer drought stress. Winter wheat has been especially affected, raising concerns over yield and grain quality ahead of harvest and increasing uncertainty for downstream flour and bakery supply chains.

Spring crops have benefited from more favorable growing conditions and currently show stronger yield potential, assuming weather remains supportive through harvest. However, the improvement is unlikely to fully compensate for losses in winter crops, which typically deliver higher yields than spring-sown alternatives. As a result, overall wheat production is expected to remain below normal despite better spring crop performance.

While the weather conditions played a big role, there are external factors pressing the farmers. Fertilizers and fuels are affected by energy prices, while grain price development has not compensated for the increase in costs. This risks affecting farmers’ outlook and their ability to invest in increased production.

Farmers will soon make decisions regarding autumn sowing for the 2027 harvest. If the weak financial outlook leads to reduced autumn sowing, next year’s harvest may be negatively affected. Even though the situation seems to be dire, this is only a forecast and it relates to harvest volumes, quality can only be assessed once harvesting has begun.