Butter Market Continues to Weaken Despite the Seasonal Period
In response to rising volatility in the dairy market, DCA Market Intelligence has introduced its new Butter Production Forecast. The tool aims to provide more transparency around short- and medium-term developments at a time when traditional seasonal patterns are becoming less reliable. It combines historical production data with current market and price indicators from the European dairy chain to calculate expected production volumes.
Their most recent analysis states that the butter market continues to weaken despite the seasonal period in which additional demand would typically provide support. In the weeks leading up to Christmas, retail and foodservice channels usually absorb higher volumes, but this year the effect is barely visible. Instead, prices have continued to fall steadily, highlighting the depth of the current structural surplus.
This week’s DCA butter price has now fallen for almost 20 consecutive weeks, reaching EUR4,785 per ton, its lowest level since autumn 2023. Current fundamentals suggest the market could still move lower, as no clear signals of tightening have yet emerged.
Frozen butter stocks remain substantial and many producers and traders are actively looking to reduce inventories in a market where confidence in price improvement is limited. As a result, the expected seasonal uplift has so far failed to materialize. The continuous pressure on butter is also weighing on related product categories, with the cream market showing further weakness and liquid dairy supply across Northwest Europe remaining more than sufficient relative to demand.
Foil cheese market supported by seasonal demand
While butter shows little response to holiday demand, the foil cheese market is benefiting more clearly from the seasonal peak. DCA’s foil cheese price has moved back above €3,000 per ton for the first time in weeks as buyers secure volumes ahead of December.
However, high milk availability continues to shape expectations. Dutch milk supply in October reached the highest level ever recorded, which means significant volumes will soon enter the cheese market. Combined with a logistically challenging holiday period, the sustainability of current firmness remains uncertain.