Into the Freezer
Although most bakery goods are consumed fresh, there is also a sizeable demand for frozen varieties in sectors such as bread, cakes and pastries. The frozen market encompasses a range of sectors, including frozen dough supplied to outlets such as retailers and foodservice operators for the preparation of finished products on the premises, as well as frozen cakes sold to consumers at the retail level.
By Jonathan Thomas
Frozen bakery products offer numerous advantages, examples of which include improved convenience for businesses and consumers, as well as a reduction in food waste (since fresh bakery items tend to have a relatively short shelf-life).
As is the case elsewhere in the food industry, advances in technology are influencing the frozen bakery sector. Automation is becoming more apparent – for example, automated kneading systems are being adopted to improve quality and consistency, as well as saving time and labour costs. Smart ovens with real-time monitoring capabilities are now being used for baking, while the future is likely to witness the deployment of AI-enabled predictive analytics to optimise energy usage, efficiency, etc.
The In-store Bakery (ISB) Market
One of the main drivers in the market for frozen dough used to manufacture bakery goods is the recent expansion of the in-store bakery (ISB) sector. For customers such as supermarkets and grocery retailers, offering freshly baked products can represent an important source of revenue. For these companies, the choice usually lies between making bakery goods such as bread from scratch using raw ingredients or, more commonly in the present market, opting for dough which is part-baked then frozen. This enables food retailers to offer a wide choice of fresh bakery goods, turning out higher volumes at lower cost and making their production systems more efficient and cost effective.
The ISB sector continues to offer opportunities for manufacturers of bake-off solutions, which are often supplied in frozen format and used by supermarket and other grocery operators for baking foods such as bread, cakes and pastries. In the US, research carried out in 2022 by the Food Industry Association (FMI) found that 95% of shoppers buy bakery goods via ISB channels at least on an occasional basis, while 63% do so weekly. In the UK, meanwhile, the market continues to grow by up to 5% per annum, while ISB channels now account for 12% of all bread sold in volume terms, rising to 20% by value.
The UK has one of the largest ISB markets in Western Europe, where sales of bakery goods via craft and artisanal bakers are lower compared with countries such as France and Italy. The UK market is dominated by the country’s leading supermarket chains, many of which have changed their operating model within the ISB sector of late. There has been a major shift towards buying bakery goods such as bread and pastries from elsewhere, which are then re-baked in-store. Many leading UK supermarket groups were forced to drop product claims such as ‘freshly baked in-store’ during 2024 following pressure from The Real Bread Campaign, on the grounds that their bakery goods were not being prepared from scratch in-store.
One of the UK market leaders is Lidl, which recently overtook Tesco and accounted for a share of more than 18% in 2024. The company had revamped its ISB operations the previous year and now offers a ‘Special Guest’ range, comprising limited edition pastries introduced every fortnight. According to the company, its bestselling ISB item is its All Butter Croissant, sales of which currently average122 units per minute. During the year ending March 2024, volume sales of Lidl’s ISB bakery goods increased by around 40%.
Other leading supermarket groups within the UK ISB market include Tesco (18% of sales), Sainsbury (almost 14% of sales), Morrisons (almost 12% of sales) and Asda (10% of sales). During the first quarter of 2025, Tesco announced it was making changes to its ISB facilities, in response to increased demand for its Finest premium own-label range of speciality breads. This encompassed bakery goods such as sourdough loaves, baguettes, ciabatta and multipack rolls. The previous autumn, Waitrose had extended its ISB range with 30 new bakery products, following a 14% rise in sales the previous year. Some of the new varieties included Sourdough Baguette, Seeded Ancient Grains Bread, Tear and Share bread in flavours such as Cheese & Onion and Curried, Jalapeno & Cheddar Breadstick, Pistachio Croissant and buns in Tiramisu and Triple Butterscotch flavours. Asda also launched a croissant with a pistachio-flavoured filling in 2024 in response to consumer demand.
Sweet bakery goods such as croissants and pain au chocolate have also made great strides within the ISB market in the UK, as well as speciality bread. According to data from Kantar, ISB sales of sweet pastries in the UK rose by over 3% in the year ending September 2024, reaching GBP746m. Some of the best performing sectors during this time included Danish pastries (which increased by 15% to GBP134m) and viennoiserie, sales of which rose by 8% to GBP466m.
The importance of the ISB sector can be further highlighted by research carried out by Delifrance in 2024, which surveyed the opinions of 1,000 UK-based adults who regularly buy into the viennoiserie market. This found that supermarket ISBs represented the most popular venue for purchasing pastries, used by 47% of respondents. This figure decreases to 42% for pre-packed pastries bought from supermarkets, 34% for independent or chain bakeries and 30% for cafes and coffee shops. ISB channels in convenience stores and/or petrol forecourts were mentioned by 28% of consumers. Outside the UK, there is also evidence that ISBs are becoming an increasing popular distribution channel for the sale of sweet pastries and viennoiserie in European countries such as France. Recent estimates suggest that around 80% of French sales of sweet pastries are now produced industrially using frozen dough, a trend that has prompted fears over the long-term survival of many of the country’s smaller craft bakers.
Dough/Bread
The global market for frozen dough was valued at just over $25bn in 2024 by Fortune Business Insights (FBI). Annual growth is expected to average almost 6% in the years between 2024 and 2032, reaching a value of more than $39bn. The sector is one of the most dynamic within the global bakery industry, driven by the widespread popularity of products such as bread. North America has the world’s largest regional market, with General Mills (owner of the Pillsbury brand) having invested $48m into its frozen dough manufacturing facility at Joplin in Missouri during 2023. Consumption of frozen dough is lower across the developing world, where distribution is hampered by the lack of cold chain logistics.