France: Pain au Chocolat or Chocolate Pain?
Rise in chocolate prices affected the French bakery market in a historic way: the demand in pastries, especially for the French staple pain au chocolat (chocolate puff pastry), has dropped in the past year.
In the past two years, cocoa prices increased significantly, peaking at a record high of about USD10.97 per kilogram in early 2025. This represents a sharp rise compared to prices two years prior, which were USD 3.12 per kilogram, with the increase driven by major supply disruptions and production deficits in key cocoa-producing countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together produce around 60% of the world’s cocoa.
The primary reasons for the price increase include severe weather conditions caused by climate change and El Niño, which led to erratic rainfall, drought, and higher temperatures in West Africa, negatively impacting cocoa yields. These adverse weather conditions have encouraged the spread of pests and diseases such as cocoa swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, which have significantly reduced production. Additionally, political instability, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, and a global production shortfall of over 500,000 tonnes contributed to the supply tightness.
Although prices have recently started to decline from their peak due to improving weather conditions and recovery in production, cocoa remains structurally higher than two years ago due to ongoing supply constraints and market uncertainty. Weather variability and political risks continue to pose threats to a stable supply and price levels.
As is the case with all butterfly effects, an erratic rainfall in Ghana can lead to increased pastry prices in France. Here’s what market analysts at Euromonitor International had to say about the the way the baked goods market has changed in the past year France.
When Chocolate Becomes Luxury
According to data analytics company Euromonitor International, retail value sales of baked goods are set to rise in current terms in France in 2025. In fact, the baked goods sector is expected to register slight growth in both value and volume terms during the year, boosted by the flat and leavened bread categories, which continue to see the highest growth in this category.
Pastries is not performing well, with volumes set to decline largely due to a reduction in pain au chocolat purchases linked to the rise in chocolate prices. These products are traditionally entry-level items on store shelves, but are now more expensive and consumers are looking for alternatives. As a result, there has been increased interest in brioche products that are seen as practical, with an element of indulgence compared to bread, but remaining affordable. Cakes is also set to see a slight decline in volume sales in 2025.
Bread Sees Strongest Performance, with Packaged Products Benefiting from Demand for Convenience
Bread is set to be the most dynamic category within baked goods in terms of value growth in 2025, with both flat breads and leavened options expected to see rising sales. Packaged products are expected to register slightly better performances, boosted by the consumer demand for convenience, as well as offering perceived value for money for more basic products.
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Market analysis based on data provided by Euromonitor International.