Italy: All Bets on Frozen Chocolate Croissants
Italy’s bread and baked-goods sector continues to be anchored in tradition even as it integrates modern preferences. Classic products like white bread fill the consumer baskets, but the most astounding surprises come from the frozen isle.
According to Grand View Horizon, the Italian packaged bread market generated revenue of USD14,126.6m in 2024, and is projected to reach USD15,641.2m by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 1.7% over 2025–2030. This slower but steady growth reflects a mature market where incremental gains must come from premium segments or innovation rather than broad expansion. In 2024, Italy accounted for 4.1% of the global packaged bread market by revenue. Within Europe, the packaged bread market is expected to expand at ~2.2% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with Germany projected to overtake as the largest national market in Europe.
Segment-wise, white bread remained the largest revenue-generating product in 2024, but sourdough is flagged as the fastest-growing segment over the forecast period, offering a powerful opportunity for differentiation. Parallel to the packaged bread space, Italy’s frozen bakery segment is seeing meaningful growth: from USD886.6m in 2022 toward USD 1,234.6m by 2030 (CAGR ~4.2%). This underlines rising consumer demand for convenience and semi-processed bakery formats.
Drivers & Consumption Trends
Italian consumers place a premium on taste, freshness, and natural ingredients. Market intelligence from Innovamarket Insights underscores that bread buyers in Italy expect products to feel fresh, natural, and traditionally made, free of artificial additives. This ethos aligns well with the clean-label and slow-fermentation narrative that sourdough and artisan-style breads can deliver.
The growth edge for sourdough lies precisely in its narrative of natural fermentation, improved digestibility, and minimal ingredients, that resonate with health-conscious modern consumers. The broader global sourdough market is expected to grow at ~6.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2035 (from ~USD5.9bn to ~USD10.2bn), according to Future Market Insights, providing a favorable tailwind for Italian players in that niche.
While packaged bread remains the backbone of volume consumption, there is evidence of a pendulum swing, according to Euromonitor International. Traditional unpackaged, leavened bread, a core part of Italian food culture, saw a dip in 2023–2024 as inflation and raw-material pressures nudged consumers toward longer-shelf-life packaged forms. But many expect this to reverse: as economic pressures ease and the premiumization of fresh / artisanal bread resumes, bakery stores, local bakers, and craft operators can reclaim share. The desire for authenticity, locality and immediate consumption, which are well documented trends in the food market, supports this reversal.
According to Euromonitor International, one product to watch is frozen Nutella croissants, launched by Ferrero to leverage sourdough in a filled, semi-processed format. The croissants are made with sourdough-leavened dough (~100+ minute leavening) to balance the filling and texture. This hybrid format showcases the intersection between artisan DNA and industrial convenience.
More broadly, as consumer preferences tilt toward indulgence with wellness, innovation in packaged cakes and sweet baked goods is expected to blend clean-label, lower sugar, or functional ingredients without compromising flavour.