Key Business Outlooks For 2026: Jorge de Saja, Secretary General, ASEMAC
We ask to move towards a simplification and regulatory stability that avoids continuous changes and allows real planning, with reasonable adaptation deadlines and an ex-ante assessment of the impact on SMEs and on daily operations; strengthening legal certainty through homogeneous and coordinated criteria between administrations so that the interpretation and application of rules is uniform and does not create uncertainty or competitive inequalities; and ensure the proportionality and practical approach of new obligations, for example on food waste or mobility, with clear guidelines and an administrative burden adjusted to the size and reality of each company.
We asked the most important players in the European and American baking industry about their expectations for the year ahead. They talked about opportunities, changing consumer expectations, what type of support the industry needs, but also about the drawbacks of an unstable political climate and the challenges that come with labour shortage and energy prices increasing.
Jorge de Saja, Secretary General, ASEMAC
Considering market volatility, supply chain disruptions, energy costs, and workforce challenges, how would you assess your members’ performance over the past year?
2025 has been a year in which we have experienced a situation of relative calm in the raw materials market, especially considering what has happened over the last few years. After a 2024 marked by a sharp rise in the price of cocoa, the situation has returned to normal over the past year without returning to initial prices. However, the price of eggs has increased significantly over the past year due to various health events. As a sector, we are aware of our responsibility as an essential industry and therefore continue to work to contain costs, improve efficiency and minimize impact on the final price for the consumer.
What are your expectations for 2026?
Looking ahead to 2026, ASEMAC is embarking on the new year with the objective of further strengthening the sector’s position in an increasingly complex regulatory, economic and social environment.
The main priorities include continued support to partners in the correct implementation of technical and quality standards, with particular emphasis on the Bread and Special Breads Quality Standard, as well as follow-up of nutrition initiatives, ultra-processed foods and mass caterers, because of their direct impact on the perception and marketing of products.
At the same time, we will step up monitoring and lobbying on consumer information and labelling, including front-end and digital labelling, and accompany companies in implementing the new European packaging regulation, the prevention of food waste and initiatives linked to circular economy, drought and deforestation, always from a practical and proportionate approach.
Another priority line will be the follow-up of labor, energy and competitiveness issues, as well as the implementation of the Food Chain Law, advocating a balance that guarantees the viability of enterprises and transferring, through FIAB and other forums, the industry’s concern about growing absenteeism. ASEMAC will also continue to advocate for appropriate taxation, with a special focus on “high in” food initiatives at the regional, national and European levels.
What unexpected developments occurred in 2025, and how did they influence your association’s operations or strategies?
In 2025, the most significant event for ASEMAC was the application of the super-reduced 4% VAT to all categories of bread, following a ruling by our National Supreme Court. This also includes special breads and those made with gluten-free flour. This milestone has had a direct impact on the activity and strategy of the association: it provides legal certainty and a homogeneous fiscal framework for the whole market, it eliminates a distortion which affected the competitiveness of certain categories and makes it easier for companies to plan with greater certainty. In addition, it creates a more favorable environment for the development and innovation of higher value-added products by avoiding that tax treatment penalizes diversification of assortment and the launch of new references.
From your perspective, what policy, regulatory, or market shifts would most benefit the baking sector in 2026, enabling baking businesses to thrive?
We consider that what would most benefit the bakery sector in 2026 is to move towards a more rational, coordinated and predictable framework, reducing regulatory pressure and avoiding over-regulation and overlapping obligations which are now increasing costs and red tape throughout the food chain. Specifically, from ASEMAC we ask to move towards a simplification and regulatory stability that avoids continuous changes and allows real planning, with reasonable adaptation deadlines and an ex-ante assessment of the impact on SMEs and on daily operations; strengthening legal certainty through homogeneous and coordinated criteria between administrations so that the interpretation and application of rules is uniform and does not create uncertainty or competitive inequalities; and ensure the proportionality and practical approach of new obligations, for example on food waste or mobility, with clear guidelines and an administrative burden adjusted to the size and reality of each company.
Looking ahead to the next five years, what is your vision for the industry, and how is your association positioning itself to shape and contribute to its future growth?
Our vision for the coming years is an increasingly innovative, more digital and more sustainable industry. Innovative, because the consumer will continue to demand products with higher added value -in quality, convenience, nutrition and formats- and our companies will continue to develop new solutions and processes to respond to these trends. Digital, because competitiveness means digitizing production and the supply chain: improving planning, traceability, maintenance, energy efficiency and market responsiveness. And sustainable, because it is no longer an option: it is a structural axis of the sector. At ASEMAC we have been promoting this approach for a long time, for example with the publication of our Sustainability Report, which records the performance of our partner companies in environmental and social areas and serves as a tool for transparency and continuous improvement. As an association, we are positioned to contribute to this future growth on three fronts: representation and institutional dialogue so that regulation accompanies and does not slow down the transformation; generation and dissemination of sectoral knowledge (data, guides to good practices…) to accelerate the adoption of solutions; and highlighting our industry’s role in food and employment, advocating a framework that facilitates investment in innovation, digitization and sustainability in a realistic and measurable way.