Germany: Discounters Win the Market
Inflation and supply chain woes have affected the German baked goods market, one of the biggest in Europe. Here’s what is in store for the coming year, based on the analysis provided by Euromonitor International.
The German baked goods market is estimated at EUR21.425bn in 2025 and is expected to come closer to EUR25bn by the year 2030. Its growth might come more from retail value than from volume, as inflation has made customers more conscious about how much they spend on this daily staple. Discounters seem to win the race, though, because they offer fresh bread and pastry – many times an impulse buy – at lower prices.
Market analysts at Euromonitor International have detailed below how the most important segments of the market are evolving and how.
Value holds up as discounters and bake-off lead
Retail value sales of baked goods are set to rise in current terms in Germany in 2025. During the year, everyday staples (bread and rolls) have maintained high purchase frequency and price levels have stayed elevated versus pre-inflation baselines. Consumers have continued to trade down to private label and discounter bake-off ranges, but overall spend has held up thanks to strong footfall at discounters and ongoing premiumisation pockets in artisanal and special-diet items (for example, sourdough, spelt, seeded loaves). At the same time, sweet bakery has faced margin pressure from persistently high cocoa and sugar costs, prompting selective price rises, recipe tweaks, and tighter promotional intensity.
Unpackaged bread sales boosted by discounters’ expansion
Unpackaged and artisanal bread and rolls (including in-store bake-off) is set to see notable value growth in 2025. Growth is being fuelled by discounters scaling their bakery counters and vertically integrated supply, which has lifted perceived freshness and impulse purchases while keeping prices sharp. The format’s high trip frequency, aroma-led merchandising, and widening assortment (from everyday Brötchen to premium sourdough) has supported steady gains.
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