The shroud of fear clouds (business) life as we know it. “Coronavirus: Outbreak spreads in Europe from Italy.” This is just one of the avalanche of headlines on the epidemic published only this Wednesday morning, as the BBC has reported that the outbreak in Italy was linked to cases now emerging in several other countries, including Austria, Croatia, Switzerland, Algeria. Brazil is also on this list, marking the first confirmed infection in Latin America. COVID-19 has now spread to every continent except Antarctica. The news is dire, as Italy quickly became Europe’s worst-affected country, with more than 300 cases confirmed over just a few days; while in China, the government has officially banned the trade and consumption of wildlife, bringing to an abrupt end a well-known market as of Monday, February 24, part of the embattled country’s ongoing efforts against the outbreak.
Although the news may well be worse before getting better, there are ways to manage fear with (pre)caution and to mitigate the disruption to the industry’s mechanisms.
In the town of the patient-zero, Wuhan, for example, COVID-19 has caused Grupo Bimbo to temporarily close a plant – one of the 10 the group runs in China. The announcement was made during a conference call discussing the company’s financial results, on February 21. The company also announced that operations would resume as soon as Chinese authorities give their approval and that none of the staff reported virus infections.
Moreover, General Mills’ company-owned Häagen-Dazs stores in greater China have been closed and the remaining shops are operating under restricted hours. Several of the world’s and region’s biggest names are operating at reduced capacity currently, while Mondelez is observing a shift towards online purchases recently.
At the same time, industry events are affected; FHA-HoReCa 2020, originally scheduled for March 3-6 in Singapore, was postponed to a later date in light of the ongoing situation, while FHA-Food & Beverage will take place as planned, the organizers announced. This difficult decision was deemed necessary considering the effects on the wider foodservice industry in Asia. The fair’s event director, Martyn Cox, announced the organizer’s short-term strategy – while a new date has yet to be announced: “We are now focused on working closely with our exhibitors, event partners, and registered visitors to ensure that we offer them the necessary support required as a result of this decision.” Informa Markets is working closely with local authorities and taking all measures in compliance with guidelines from Singapore’s Ministry of Health, Ministry of Manpower and the Singapore Tourism Board.
Bakery China, set to take place from May 6 to 9, currently reports no change to its planning. However, the world’s manufacturing superpower, China, is bracing for an economic fallout that has begun to show a ripple effect across various industries the world over. To make matters worse, the outbreak coincided with the Lunar New Year, traditionally a time for traveling and large gatherings. This year, celebrations of China’s most important public holiday were eerily quiet, with striking images from a beautifully decorated – yet largely abandoned – streets of Wuhan, for example. While analyses of the outbreak-possibly-pandemic are vastly covering the whole range of emotional reactions, it is the effects of these reactions we are rationalizing to mitigate – to ensure continuity: continuity in our everyday life, in everyday services, and product availability.
Foodservice is struggling in the countries affected the hardest, along with access to many things taken for granted, including (food and health) safety. McDonald’s and Starbucks were among the first companies to announce temporary closures in January, in an attempt to prevent the spread of the virus among employees and customers.
The virus undoubtedly represents a serious threat to the performance of food manufacturers, industry associations starkly warn, with the potential to curb the overall development even of powerhouses such as China. Fear is a difficult variable to contain; however, ensuring food safety, including the safety of the workers and that of the uninterrupted process, in addition to that of the consumers, is key.
Preparedness against Disruptions
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control has listed the following critical elements of plans for preparedness: crisis management system; healthcare capacity, including isolation capacity; and business continuity. The authority elaborates: “Business continuity plans may need to be updated and made available for key healthcare providers and public health stakeholders to ensure continuity of essential services. Furthermore, all essential sectors should be involved in ensuring the continuity of their services.”
The outbreak storms throughout continents and aspects of everyday life; while COVID-19 remains largely unpredictable, the end of February will be a key milestone to understand the true scale of the outbreak – according to the expert who led the global response to the 2003 SARS outbreak. The World Health Organization announced its findings that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between January 23 and February 2, and has been declining steadily since then, in a briefing held February 26. At the same time, the sudden increase in new cases in Italy, Iran, and South Korea are “deeply concerning”. It is worth highlighting the Director-General’s opening remarks today: “The increase in cases outside China has prompted some media and politicians to push for a pandemic to be declared. We should not be too eager to declare a pandemic without a careful and clear-minded analysis of the facts.” It’s a global concern and it’s not a matter of “if”, but only a matter of “when” the outbreak will be in proximity.
What we can do is prepare for the “how”; so, how do we keep the supply chain running in light of this? Although contamination through the foodstuffs themselves is highly unlikely, a checklist must include a thorough cleaning, conformity with all guidelines issued by local authorities and the World Health Organization, assessing the situation of the partners along the supply chain and calibrating to all new coordinates. Importantly, ask for the advice of health authorities for particular situations, especially when identifying infections within manufacturing, sales, or restaurant areas.