Key Business Outlooks For 2026: Eric Dell, President and CEO, American Bakers Association
As we move into 2026, our association’s top priorities will remain focused on addressing persistent workforce challenges, advocating for stable and fair trade and tariff policies, and advancing practical, science-based nutrition policy that supports consumer choice and ensures bakers can continue to innovate and meet changing market needs.
We asked the most important players in the European and American baking industry about their expectations for the year ahead. They talked about opportunities, changing consumer expectations, what type of support the industry needs, but also about the drawbacks of an unstable political climate and the challenges that come with labour shortage and energy prices increasing.
Eric Dell, President and CEO, American Bakers Association
Considering market volatility, supply chain disruptions, energy costs, and workforce challenges, how would you assess your members’ performance over the past year?
Over the past year, our members have continued to perform well in a very challenging and unpredictable environment. One of the most significant complicating factors has been the ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and tariffs. These tariffs continue to add cost, inconsistency, and complexity across the commercial baking supply chain, from key ingredients and packaging to equipment and other essential inputs. We expect tariffs and trade-related pressures to remain a challenge in the near term as businesses work to plan and invest with greater predictability.
What are your expectations for 2026?
ABA expects 2026 to present both challenges and opportunities across government relations, business development, and customer sales. The strategic planning led by the ABA Board of Directors has delivered real returns for ABA members and the industry as they navigate this evolving environment. The Board’s strategic investments have strengthened the professional staff talent, expanded marketing and communications impact, enhanced federal and state affairs reach, and increased the value of industry research. In times of uncertainty and unpredictability, active engagement in ABA is essential. Together, we will continue to lead and serve as the voice of the commercial baking industry.
How do you foresee the global and regional bakery markets evolving, and what are your association’s top priorities for 2026?
In 2026, ABA expects both global and US bakery markets to remain resilient, supported by continued consumer demand for affordable, convenient, and staple foods. Even as economic pressures and shifting consumer preferences influence purchasing decisions, bakery products continue to play an essential role in household budgets and everyday meals. In the United States, over 99% of households bought a baked good last year and bread can be found in 95% of American households, where it is used in more than half of all lunches and nearly half of all dinners across the country.
As we move into 2026, our association’s top priorities will remain focused on addressing persistent workforce challenges, advocating for stable and fair trade and tariff policies, and advancing practical, science-based nutrition policy that supports consumer choice and ensures bakers can continue to innovate and meet changing market needs.
What unexpected developments occurred in 2025, and how did they influence your association’s operations or strategies?
One of the most unexpected and impactful developments in 2025 was the sharp rise in tariff-related costs for the commercial baking sector. According to ABA economic impact data, from January through July 2025, tariffs on imported baked goods totaled $132 million, which is $110 million more than the same period in 2024, despite roughly the same value of goods being imported. That kind of sudden increase created significant uncertainty for bakeries and reinforced the importance of consistent, predictable trade policy as a top advocacy priority.
Nutrition policy has remained central to federal and state policymakers focusing on food and health issues. We’ve also seen more states move forward with developing their own legislation and regulations, which has increased the need for ABA to engage earlier and more broadly to support sound, science-based policies and help avoid a patchwork of conflicting requirements. To this end, ABA has answered the call to increase our value in this space by securing top-level talent at the state-level with a nationally recognized firm that has strong relationships with state leaders and offices across the country. This depth will enhance our effectiveness in promoting and protecting the commercial baking industry.
From your perspective, what policy, regulatory, or market shifts would most benefit the baking sector in 2026, enabling baking businesses to thrive?
In 2026, the shifts that would most benefit the baking sector are policies that strengthen workforce availability and support long-term investment and competitiveness. Workforce remains a top concern for baking manufacturers across the country, and improvements that expand access to labor and support retention and training would help manufacturers meet demand and manage production challenges.
In addition, tax reforms that encourages innovation and capital investment will be especially impactful. On July 4th, 2025, key provisions championed by ABA were included in the reconciliation tax bill signed into law by US President Trump. These hard-won policy measures are expected to deliver an estimated $3.0 billion reduction in tax burdens for baking manufacturers, translating to more than 12,500 American jobs and $679 million in annual wages. Beginning this year, these provisions will help drive investment through full expensing of R&D costs, 100% bonus depreciation, factory incentives, expanded 199A pass-through deduction, permanent expansion of business interest deductibility, international taxation fixes, and estate tax relief.
Looking ahead to the next five years, what is your vision for the industry, and how is your association positioning itself to shape and contribute to its future growth?
Over the next five years, we see the baking industry continuing to grow and evolve as a resilient, innovative, and essential part of the economy, driven by strong and changing consumer demand, product development, and continued category growth across retail and foodservice. ABA is positioning itself to help shape that future through a strategic plan that guides our priorities and ensures we are focused on where the industry needs us most. We’re also strengthening engagement and collaboration across the broader baking community, including through major industry events like IBIE 2028, to support innovation, alignment, and momentum for future growth.
In January 2026, ABA announced a Letter of Intent to affiliate with the Retail Bakers of America. This affiliation will strengthen the broader industry’s advocacy efforts and increase our effectiveness on Capitol Hill for both commercial and retail bakers. The affiliation will also provide an opportunity for category growth in the commercial baking sector, strengthening both ABA and RBA.