Key Business Outlooks For 2026: Anne Mertens-Hoyng, Bakery Category Senior Director at Cargill
Sustainability is becoming non-negotiable. Brands are under increasing pressure to demonstrate credible action rather than make aspirational claims. That’s why we’re investing in solutions like NextCoa, our cocoa-free confectionery alternative developed with Voyage Foods, which gives customers a way to innovate at lower environmental impact while also navigating the complex economics of cocoa supply.
All of this means 2026 will reward agility.
We asked the most important players in the European and American baking industry about their expectations for the year ahead. They talked about opportunities, changing consumer expectations, what type of support the industry needs, but also about the drawbacks of an unstable political climate and the challenges that come with labour shortage and energy prices increasing.
Anne Mertens-Hoyng, Bakery Category Senior Director at Cargill
What are your expectations for 2026, taking into account the evolving market dynamics?
As I look toward 2026, I expect the market to continue splitting along two powerful but ultimately complementary paths: the pursuit of better health and the pursuit of great sensory experiences. Consumers want both, and they’re becoming more vocal about it. Health isn’t simply about sugar or fat reduction anymore – it’s about holistic nutrition, gut health, clean labels, and feeling good about what they’re putting into their bodies. At the same time, indulgence hasn’t lost its appeal, and we see that vividly in categories like bakery, where hybrid formats, layered textures and visually striking products continue to gain traction.
Value will remain an unavoidable force shaping buying decisions. Inflation has heightened scrutiny on every pound spent, so manufacturers will need to deliver products that feel worth the price through taste, quality and nutrition, not just lower cost. Our own TrendTracker insights underline that value isn’t synonymous with cheap – consumers want the right balance of affordability, enjoyment, transparency and health.
Sustainability is also becoming non-negotiable. Brands are under increasing pressure to demonstrate credible action rather than make aspirational claims. That’s why we’re investing in solutions like NextCoa, our cocoa-free confectionery alternative developed with Voyage Foods, which gives customers a way to innovate at lower environmental impact while also navigating the complex economics of cocoa supply.
All of this means 2026 will reward agility. Companies that can reformulate quickly, apply ingredient science strategically, and meet rising expectations on health and sustainability – without compromising taste – will be the ones shaping the future of food.
How do you foresee the global and regional bakery markets evolving, and what are your company’s top priorities for 2026?
Regionally, Europe is seeing significant momentum in frozen sweet bakery, which now accounts for roughly 20% of the market and continues to grow thanks to its convenience benefits and extended shelf life. Formats with filled centres – whether molten, fruit-forward or multi-textured – are thriving because they offer that sense of discovery consumers love. Hybrids like the cruffin remain strong because they deliver indulgence, visual appeal and convenience all at once. Our priorities for 2026 reflect these shifts. We are supporting the surge in American-style and visually shareable formats, which require specialised functional ingredients—from bake-stable fillings to multi-phase textures.
Looking ahead to the next five years, what is your vision for the industry, and how is your company positioning itself to shape and contribute to its future growth?
Over the next five years, I believe we’re going to see food manufacturers fundamentally rethink what “good” looks like – good for people and good for the palate. Consumers are becoming far more intentional about the choices they make, and that will accelerate demand for products that deliver health benefits in ways that feel joyful, accessible and affordable. Personalised nutrition will also move closer to the mainstream as data and digital tools give people deeper insight into what their bodies need at different life stages.
Indulgence, however, isn’t going anywhere. If anything, it will become more sophisticated—more about textures, sensory layers, global flavour influence and storytelling. Bakery is a perfect example of where these forces converge: functional benefits woven into fun, visually striking, emotionally satisfying formats.
Ultimately, our vision is to be the partner that helps customers deliver products that consumers trust, desire and feel good about choosing. That means doubling down on science, sensory expertise and speed. By doing that well, we don’t just follow the future of food—we help build it.