UPDATE: Frozen Pizza, Bread and Pastries Sales Surge 

As the COVID-19 outbreak accelerates in Europe and the United States, governments, businesses, and consumers are changing behaviors rapidly; shifts are reflected in consumer purchases in Italy, France, the US, New Zealand, and UK, research company IRI reveals. Bakery products such as frozen pizza in the US, bread in the US and the UK and viennoiserie products in France have recorded impressive sales growths. 

Frozen and packaged food purchases have increased as consumers continue stocking their homes with long-lasting foods, the research shows. For example, in the US, packaged food sales increased by 77.2%, while in France by 49.1%. Important sale growths have also recorded in the UK (42%), Italy (33.8%) and New Zealand (26.1%). 

For example, in week March 8-15, the frozen pizza category has recorded an unexpected rise of 117.2%, while fresh bread sales grew by 58.5%. Other baked goods have also recorded important growth: cookies (45.3%), ready-to-eat cereal – 79.2%, crackers – 71.5%. In the UK, the biggest growth was seen in biscuits (54.2%), followed by breakfast cereals (38.4%) and confectionery 16.1%. The bread & cakes segment rose by 15.2%, while crisps, snacks & nuts by 12.6%. 

Italians prefer sweet snacks, a segment that grew by 13.6%. From the category of baby care products, biscuits rose by 26%. In France, the most important growth was registered by industrial viennoiserie (24.5%), but French also bought 22.9% more chocolate bars, chocolate confectionery grew by 11.9%, industrial pastry – 17.6% and fresh desserts – 16.5%. Bread was on the rise in New Zealand – especially light grain, which grew by 21.0%, white bread by  19.5% and heavy grain bread by 13.7%. Crackers sales have also recorded a 26.1% growth, while biscuit sales (enrobed full) grew by 16.1% and fresh pies by 15.4%. 

UPDATE: IRI explained for Worldbakers that we can see panic shopping slowing down, an evolution that could be observed in Italy. As restrictions were introduced in Italy, IRI saw more local shopping and fewer visits to stores to reduce contact. This led to a 41% increase in convenience store visits. Basket sizes increased from EUR45 to EUR76, a rise of 69%, as shoppers looked to make their shop last. Basket composition also changed; full of essentials like eggs, milk and pasta, up by 20-40%, and still growing, as well as items for home baking, like yeast (+119.5%), flour (+117.6%) and pizza preparation (+98.6%). Snacks dropped (snacks -0.7% and sweet treats -8.9%).

“We know anecdotally that there is a shortage of flour bags in the UK, so they are turning to foodservice packaging to get them to stores for consumers to buy. In Boise, Idaho, there is a local baker that has taken to packaging flour for a local store. It’s a great pivot for the bakery and local retail. Confectionery trends are likely to be down because people won’t be celebrating Easter to the degree they normally do. No community Easter egg hunts or large family gatherings, for example,” IRI analysts explained fo us.