Trading Up on Cakes and Pies

Cakes continue to represent one of the most popular types of sweet bakery goods, accounting for a significant share of the global market. According to Grand View Research, worldwide sales of cakes amounted to almost USD43bn in 2019, with annual growth forecast to average around 3% for the period leading up to 2027. 

By Jonathan Thomas

In recent years, market growth has been more limited for packaged cakes, as consumers increasingly opt for higher-quality artisanal equivalents. Much of the recent growth within the market has come from cakes suitable for eating on the go, driven by leading bakery chains whose performance appears to have recovered from the disruptive effects of the pandemic. 

The global market for pies encompasses both sweet and savory products. Sweet pies are typically filled with fruits such as apples, cherries or berry fruits, and are typically eaten either as a snack or a dessert. When eaten as desserts, sweet pies are often served with accompaniments such as cream, custard or ice cream. In contrast, savory pies – which are usually filled with either meat (e.g. chicken, steak or pork) or ingredients suitable for consumption by vegetarians or vegans – tend to be eaten as a meal component, although their portable nature mean they can also be consumed as snacks. In the UK, for instance, there is a strong tradition of eating meat pies when attending football matches. 

Snacking Trends

Many cakes and pies are now eaten as snacks. For this reason, manufacturers have responded by developing formats suitable for snacking occasions, usually in the form of individually packaged products which can be inserted into lunch boxes, for example, or eaten on the go. However, the snack foods market continues to expand dramatically, encompassing a widening range of products. Many of the newer varieties of snack foods now coming to market address specific consumer health concerns, with the result that competition for traditional snacks has intensified. 

According to the latest edition of Mondelez’s State of Snacking report (which surveyed the opinions of consumers in 12 countries and was published early in 2023), 71% of consumers snack at least once a day, with the snacking habit most deeply ingrained amongst the younger age groups. Despite the rising cost of living, 75% of people always find room in their budgets for snack foods, a figure that increases to 80% for millennials. This is largely because snacking is often seen as comforting – the research found that 60% of consumers believed that snacking helped them to take their minds off the many issues facing the world at present. 

One of the main insights from the Mondelez research was how often snacks are now replacing main meals during a typical day. With the percentage of consumers skipping at least one main meal a day having grown from 30% in 2013 to 40% in 2021, snacking in the morning has increased significantly during this time. In 2022, over 60% of consumers claimed to eat snacks for breakfast (up from 50% two years earlier), while a similar percentage turned to snack foods as an option for both lunch and the evening meal. With 64% of consumers preferring to eat many small meals during a typical day (rather than three large ones), the snacking habit appears unlikely to diminish as far as eating patterns are concerned. 

Another key finding from the Mondelez research was the rise of snacking in the morning. In 2022, 61% of consumers opted for a snack for breakfast, up from 50% two years earlier. Breakfast snacking appears to be on the rise in many parts of the world, mostly because snacks are seen as a convenient option when consumers are pressed for time. Between 2020 and 2022, the percentage of people snacking for lunch rose from 49% to 61%, while snacking for dinner during this time increased from 46% of consumers to 60%. This suggests that breakfast now appears to have caught up with meals from other times of the day as a snacking occasion, although data from FMCG Gurus paints a rather different picture. According to this company’s research, 63% of the world’s adult population snacks in the afternoon, making this the most popular time of day for snacking. In contrast, consumers tend to snack far less frequently after dinner or in the evening. 

Although cakes and other sweet bakery products represent one of the more popular options for snacking, competition remains strong from other foods. According to the Mondelez research, 51% of consumers claimed to eat cakes and sweet bakery products at least once a day in 2022, up slightly from 49% three years earlier. As can be seen from the table below, however, a higher percentage of consumers claim to eat snacks such as cookies/sweet biscuits and savory biscuits and crackers during a typical day. 

Snacking remains commonplace in the US, which continues to represent the world’s largest market for snack foods. In 2022, the annual Food & Health survey carried out by the International Food Information Council (IFIC) found that around three-quarters of US consumers snacked at least once a day. Although prices have risen in recent months, most people still tend to view snacks as an affordable treat, though many are now seeking out healthier options (e.g. gluten-free or plant-based). Distinctive eating patterns emerge according to the time of day – for example, savory or salty snacks are the favored type in the evening, regularly eaten by 40% of consumers. This figure decreases to 38% for chocolate and/or confectionery and 37% for cakes, sweet biscuits and ice cream. In contrast, fresh fruit is far more popular amongst US consumers as a morning snack. 

You can read the rest of this article in the May-June issue of European Baker & Biscuit, which you can access by clicking here.